The West Indian Manatee is currently listed as a threatened species by the U.S Fish and Wildlife service. A threatened designation means population levels still are at risk of becoming endangered again in the foreseeable future. This project seeks to forecast how many manatees would perish from watercraft strikes (the greatest threat to their survival) based upon the most current method utilized for projecting manatee population growth.
The latest version, known as the Core Biological Model (version 6) or CBMv6, was employed along with the most current manatee population data, which was provided by Dr. Jeffrey A. Hostetler. Dr. Hostetler is the predominate research scientist for the Florida Manatee population. The most current Florida Manatee total population stands at: 6,352.
The results sought are the total number of watercraft deaths, expected for the next 10 consecutive years. The calculation will require, from the current population, predicting the population growth factors for each of the four regions (ATL, USJ, NW, and SW), with segregation by sex, age, and reproductive status.
"Population and Mortality Predictions of the Florida Manatee – Ten Year Watercraft Mortality,"
Undergraduate Journal of Mathematical Modeling: One + Two:
2, Article 5.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5038/2326-3618.104.22.16804 Available at: https://scholarcommons.usf.edu/ujmm/vol9/iss2/5
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Arcadii Grinshpan, Mathematics and Statistics
Jeffrey A. Hostetler, Research Scientist, Marine Mammal Program, Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, Fish and Wildlife Research Institute
Problem Suggested By:
Jeffrey A. Hostetler, Dylan Lehigh, and Roy Yanong (University of Florida, Tropical Aquaculture Laboratory)