Covid-19, probability, conditional probability, Bayes' theorem, diagnostic testing
The COVID-19 pandemic is arguably the worst crisis the world has faced, so far, in this new century. We haven’t seen a pandemic like this since the 1918 Flu at the beginning of the last century, and, as of this writing, there appears to be no end in sight. What those of us who’re focused on quantitative methods have noticed, in addition to the many people dying, becoming ill, and losing their livelihoods, is the importance of quantitative literacy to an understanding of what’s going on. That’s what this article is about. Specifically, it’s about how the COVID-19 pandemic is illustrating the importance of understanding different aspects of probability theory, particularly conditional probability.
Lewis, Michael A.. "COVID-19 and Quantitative Literacy: Focusing on Probability." Numeracy 14, Iss. 1 (2021): Article 5. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5038/1936-46184.108.40.2062
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