cognitive illusion, Bayesian reasoning, medical diagnosis problem, mammography problem
Gerd Gigerenzer's technique of frequency representations for solving the medical diagnosis problem, mammography problem, and other Bayesian reasoning problems is summarized in this paper. Such a method has been introduced to community college students in an elementary statistics course. With repeated practice, many community college students can acquire the skill and avoid reported judgment errors that are commonly committed by medical professionals. However, weaknesses in basic skills such as percentage calculations prevent some students from obtaining the correct probability.
Wang, Frank. "Numeracy Infusion Course for Higher Education (NICHE), 2: Development of Students' Bayesian Reasoning Skill." Numeracy 8, Iss. 2 (2015): Article 7. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5038/1936-46184.108.40.206
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