This paper describes the development of a demand model to estimate ridership for rural intercity bus services in the United States. The need for such a model and the approach used in developing it are described. Two models were developed, one a regression equation calibrated on data from a survey of rural intercity services, and the other using a trip rate developed from National Household Travel Survey data. Both models are included in a toolkit that also includes user information and population data. The paper then compares the ridership predictions made using the model with actual experience on rural intercity routes in Washington State and illustrates how it can be used as part of a statewide assessment for Vermont. Conclusions about its applicability and directions for future research are presented.
Fravel, Frederic D & Barboza Jr., Reyes.
Development and Application of a Rural Intercity Demand Model.
Journal of Public Transportation, 15 (3): 25-41.
Available at: http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/jpt/vol15/iss3/2