Title

Timescales for Detecting a Significant Acceleration in Sea Level Rise

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

4-14-2014

Keywords

earth sciences, climate science, oceanography

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms4635

Abstract

There is observational evidence that global sea level is rising and there is concern that the rate of rise will increase, significantly threatening coastal communities. However, considerable debate remains as to whether the rate of sea level rise is currently increasing and, if so, by how much. Here we provide new insights into sea level accelerations by applying the main methods that have been used previously to search for accelerations in historical data, to identify the timings (with uncertainties) at which accelerations might first be recognized in a statistically significant manner (if not apparent already) in sea level records that we have artificially extended to 2100. We find that the most important approach to earliest possible detection of a significant sea level acceleration lies in improved understanding (and subsequent removal) of interannual to multidecadal variability in sea level records.

Was this content written or created while at USF?

Yes

Citation / Publisher Attribution

Nature Communications, v. 5, art. 3635

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