Graduation Year


Document Type




Degree Granting Department

Marine Science

Major Professor

Mark E. Luther, Ph.D.


Numerical modeling, Particle tracking, Estuaries, Algal blooms, Ammonium, Karenia brevis


The objective of this research is to evaluate a coastal prediction system under various real world scenarios to test the efficacy of the system as a management tool in Tampa Bay. The prediction system, comprised of a three-dimensional numerical circulation model and a Lagrangian based particle tracking model, simulates oceanographic scenarios in the bay for past (hindcast), present (nowcast) and future (forecast) time frames. Instantaneous velocity output from the numerical circulation model drives the movement of particles, each representing a fraction of the total material, within the model grid cells. This work introduces a probability calculation that allows for rapid analysis of bay-wide particle transport. At every internal time step a ratio between the number of particles in each individual model grid cell to the total number of particles in the entire model domain is calculated.

These ratios, herein called transport quotients, are used to construct probability maps showing locations in Tampa Bay most likely to be impacted by the contaminant. The coastal prediction system is first evaluated using dimensionless particles during an anhydrous ammonia spill. In subsequent studies biological and chemical characteristics are incorporated into the transport quotient calculations when constructing probability maps. A salinity tolerance is placed on particles representing Karenia brevis during hindcast simulations of a harmful algal bloom in the bay. Photobleaching rates are incorporated into probability maps constructed from hindcast simulations of seasonal colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) transport. The coastal prediction system is made more robust with the inclusion of biological parameters overlaid on top of the circulation dynamics.

The system successfully describes the basic physical mechanisms underlying the transport of contaminants in the bay under various real world scenarios. The calculation of transport quotients during the simulations in order to develop probability maps is a novel concept when simulating particle transport but one which can be used in real-time to support the management decisions of environmental agencies in the bay area.