Graduation Year

2004

Document Type

Thesis

Degree

M.A.

Degree Granting Department

Geography

Major Professor

Tobin, Graham A.

Keywords

PMF, Karst, physiographic, severe, hurricane

Abstract

A major tropical storm will strike in the area of West Central Florida. In anticipation of this storm, this study seeks to predict the specific areas within the Baker Canal drainage basin that will be inundated as a result of this expected event. There are few references concerning extreme flooding in small drainage basins within existing literature. For the purposes of this study this event was considered to be a Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) as defined by Crippen and Bue (1977). The Hydrologic Engineering Centers' Geographic River Analysis System was used to develop water surface elevations and flow rates. Maps depicting this potential flooding at various flood stages were produced using the Environmental Survey Research Institute's geographic Information mapping program ArcView3.3.

This investigation produced estimates of the surface area of a Probable Maximum Flood and the estimated flood inundated 23.7% of the study area. The estimated extent of Probable Maximum Flood indicates that the flood will affect one thousand and seventy six (1,076) homes and other structures. The study found that eight hundred and sixty three (863) acres or 27% of the land within the PMF flood zone is listed for future development by the County Planning Commission. When this projected development area is added to existing developed land area a total of 85% of all developed land within the estimated flood area will be submerged and subject to damage. An extreme flood study on a small drainage basin prior to the event can be a viable tool for mitigation planning if it is recognized that there are variables that can produce a relatively large range of error. The potential for this type of study is in its' comparison with an actual event affecting the same area.

If the predicted study and the real event study agree within reasonable limits then, maximum flood investigations on small basins could be considered a useful tool in hazard reduction.

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